2018 is going to be a great year for both developers and gamers because big games like Black Ops 4, Battlefield V and Red Dead Redemption 2 are inching ever closer to their launch windows. Given the popular reception that Red Dead Redemption had, we already know that the second iteration in the series will also manage to sell insanely well, outselling most competitors.

This issue has recently become a bone of contention among analysts because the folks over at Piper Jaffray believe Red Dead Redemption might not have such a good reception after all. The analysts at Piper Jaffray back up their claim by sharing a report which estimates the sales for EA, Take-Two and Activision, setting a cataclysmic chain of events. The report was written by Michael J. Olson and Yung Kim who have revealed that Black Ops 4 will be taking the lead in sales this year by selling an estimated 21.5 million units.

They predict that Battlefield V will come in second place with projected sales of 16 by the end of March 2019. And despite being the most anticipate game of the year, Read Dead Redemption 2 will only sell 15.5 million estimates units by the end of March 2018.  This doesn’t mean that Black Ops 4 will outsell Red Dead Redemption 2 throughout the games’ lifetime sales total.

Case in point, Rockstar’s previous game, Grand Theft Auto 5, which has become the most profitable entertainment product of all time. While Red Dead Redemption 2 won’t be able to match the GTA 5’s phenomenal success, it will still put up some long-term success, especially considering that it is Rockstar’s first major game since 2013.

This will be in strong contrast to Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, which will have potentially huge early numbers that will slow down over time.

Take it with a grain of salt

None of these numbers actually have to ring true, and are in fact, merely estimates from the incredibly talented analysts at Piper Jaffray. It should also be noted that other groups have provided their own estimates that are different than Piper Jaffray’s predictions; an example would be the NPD Group.

The NPD Group says that Red Dead Redemption 2 will ‘edge out’ Black Ops 4 to become the best selling game of the year, followed by Battlefield V, NBA 2K19 and Far Cry 5.

There are several factors that go into deciding which game will be the best selling of the year. Review scores can also play a major role, and Black Ops series don’t really get the best reviews across the board. The lack of a campaign isn’t helping their case either, because many fans of the series believe that the developers aren’t remaining true to the series.

Black Ops 4 is also trying to appeal to Fortnite’s dedicated fanbase by giving their own battle royale mode, and it remains to be seen how that will work out. One thing that goes in favor of Black Ops 4 is that Red Dead Redemption 2 will not be making its way to PC at launch, and it could take months or even years before Rockstar decides to give it the PC treatment.